Summer Transfer Window Review
The transfer window closed with a whimper rather than a bang. It was disappointing after a great start not to get a couple of signings through the door. Let’s start with the arrivals
Cheick Doucouré
The number one target. That was signed up relatively early. A combative midfielder that progresses the ball quickly. He suits the system and early days but looks a great signing. The last game against Newcastle he won 5 tackles (joint most in the match), goal-line clearance, two key passes and 79% passing accuracy.
Transfermarkt has a fee of 20 million. For my amortisation figure, I normally add 30%. Historically comparing transfermarkt to statutory accounts they are 30% lower. This could be agent fees and player bonuses which are not included in the Transfermarkt figure. This works out to be £4 million per season. That’s only 0.3k more per season than Kouyaté cost. That looks like good value. Especially as he is 22 years old. If the club play their cards right he will have high resale value or renew a couple of contracts and he is getting a testimonial in 2032.
Chris Richards
Brought in as backup center back that can cover full-back. Not had a huge amount of minutes in his career so far. It may take him a while to integrate. He has got some pedigree from playing in Germany. Hopefully, he gets a run of games to prove himself.
Sam Johnstone
Second choice keeper but he hopes to become first choice. Been just under a year since he played for England against Andorra. He has an outside chance of going to the world cup as 3rd choice keeper. He is good competition especially on a free with Butland and Guaita on the last years of their deals. Although Guaita might have an extension clause.
Malcolm Ebiowei
This guy is exciting. I went to the under 23 game against Brighton. He had the tricks and looked like a constant threat. I was expecting him to go out on loan this season. Looks like he is going to be a super sub like Olise last season. That might be an unfair comparison as Olise did have three seasons in the Championship with 4,545 mins before breaking into the Premier League. Malcolm has one season and 952 mins. At 18 that's a good amount of experience but it may take him a while to reach his potential.
No South Americans
Parish talked up the usefulness of Brexit for football. To open up the work permits. (didn’t need Brexit to open up the work permit rules). It’s now possible to get work permits from players plying their trade in South America that aren’t international or joint citizens with EU nations. Man Utd spending silly money on Antony. Ajax got him from São Paulo in 2020 for an initial £13 million, which could rise to £18.2 million. He is now going for £85 million. It took two years for his price to increase 4.7 times. I know that Freedman has attended games at Botafogo with Textor. So hopefully they will sign some players in the Winter window after the South American season is over. Which does seem like a popular time to sign South Americans.
Loans
Tayo
First loan deal for Tayo and he gets a Championship club. He didn’t break into the first team but Coventry has only played away games. As the stadium was used in the commonwealth games and isn’t currently fit for football. Then the loan was canceled. I was hoping even if he didn’t play much the training field battle to earn his spot would be a challenging experience and would push him on. Being an understudy and waiting for your chance; can help with development. As your push yourself to earn that spot and work towards an achievable goal. Now back at Palace as there is a handful of senior pros that are ahead of him in the pecking order and I think is only going to be under 23 football. I am nervous that this will affect his chances of getting another loan as first only lasted a month.
Rak-Sakyi
Seems to be having a great time at Charlton. It's great for him that he can play regularly in league one without moving area. The next loan he can look to play in the championship. If you look at Olise he played 67 games in the championship before the Premier League breakthrough. Similarly, Eze played 20 times in league two and 104 in the championship. Hopefully, Rak-Saky can make similar strides with his next loan move.
RDW
I am quite disappointed with this loan for Plunge and O'Brien. The Belgium top tier is a great place for players to learn their trade. Playing against a mixture of teams with Club Brugge at the top. They regularly play in the Champions League group stage and there is a massive drop-off in quality with the rest of the league.
The next level down I think is professional. I think this would be comparable to the conference but I might be harsh. It also includes 4 under 21 teams. The Belgium B teams do well in UEFA competitions. Genk last year got to the last 16 knocking out Chelsea and getting beaten on penalties to Liverpool. Club Brugge B finished 2nd in a group with PSG, Man City, and RasenBallsport Leipzig. It’s worth noting that Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea struggle in the Papa John Cup against League one and two opposition.
Plunge was playing in the Championship. 19 starts and 4 goals are good returns for a striker. Was going to call Derby a struggling team but if you ignore the points deduction they were 17th. Was hoping for a Championship loan or at least a league one loan. This feels like a step-down. But for him as a person; this is a big deal moving to another country and with a safety net that it’s only a two-hour train from Brussels to London.
Jake O'Brien scored a goal coming from the bench on his home debut. Last year started 16 league games for Swindon in League two. I really like that signed him from Cork City. The Irish leagues have had some good talent over the years. Adding an Irish player to the youth squads each season seems to be a good strategy. Even if they don’t make it to the first team. We can develop them and sell them to Championship or League one.
Very important that RDW get a promotion. Partly as it’s a better location to send young players. Also work permits if you play 40% or more minutes then they will earn a work permit. So Textor could find a promising young American. Move them to RDW. If they earn a first-team spot then they can be moved to Palace.
Leavers
Benteke
In a way bit disappointed he didn't move to another Premier League team. To prove he could still do it. Before being dropped last season he had good goals per 90 of .31. Over a season that would have been 12 goals. Totally get Vieira wanting a more mobile pressing forward. That just isn't Benteke. Last season he pressed 9.45 per 90 minutes. Compare that Ayew who pressed 23 times or Mateta 19.7 times. Ultimately that’s what cost him his place on the team last season. I do wonder how he will perform in the MLS.
Cheikhou Kouyaté
The issue of supporting his international teammate and not then doing anything afterward to clear up the situation. I liked him before that as a character in the dressing room. It’s now soured the whole thing. A bit happy he is gone. He would have been a very useful squad player as especially since Palace will play with three center-backs more often.
Amortisation
So far we looking at around £40 million added to the balance sheet. This would include sign-on fees, agent fees, and transfer fees. This will be spread of an average of 5 years. I am estimating that amortisation charge for this season should be around 30 million. Give or take 3 million-ish.
Wages
Using data from Capolgy and adding very rough estimates for the new players. Staff costs would be around £110 million. Give or take £5 million-ish. Not confident about this number.
The wages and amortisation would be 90% of pre covid turnover. Part of this club is a couple of squad members light. In previous years this ratio was much higher. Last published accounts this ratio was 121%. Premier League is looking to add rules similar to UEFA rules. UEFA will be capping the wages and add amortisation of turnover. In 23 it will be 90% 24 80% and 25 70%. This might work with UEFA as the new model of the Champions League will increase turnover. This measure is about stopping wage inflation and reducing the risk of newcomers to the top table. Problem is that if they apply that to the rest of the league it then becomes an issue to sell players. Teams like Chelsea rely on revenue from transfer fees. They need teams to pay large fees. Similarly, if they sign a player to a long contract and it goes wrong. For example, Spurs could sell Dele Alli to Everton. As Everton are willing to pay fee and wages. If strict rules on the rest of the Premier League the top teams will struggle to offload players. Palace needs to prepare now for this. The club will be offering five-year contracts knowing that they have committed funds for future seasons. If these rules come in they will have to drop wages and amortisation by 31% compared to the last released accounts. That could be messy and cause issues in the market.
P&L
If it wasn’t for the cost of living crisis. I would be predicting around £1 million loss. That would be without any January signings. This is way lower than what I was expecting when I did the preview. I am using capology numbers to estimate staff cost. In prior years Capology number is 1.6 away from staff cost (excluding years when the manager has been sacked). This estimate could be out on wages & amorisation of around 8 million. On turnover used the pre covid figures of 12th in the league and quarter-final in FA cup.
Not taken into account is the energy crisis. Currently, businesses like Palace have no cap on energy costs. The floodlights, training ground and youth academy. All use up a lot of energy. I have seen that bills for football clubs would quadruple. This won't just affect energy bills. Everything will be more expensive this winter. Even items like the cost of PlayStation 5 console has gone up 6 %. It's unheard of that computer games console to go up in price.
If Palace signed targets from the last week of the window the estimate would be closer to the expected figure from the preview. If it was three players with amortisation average of 5 million and wages of 5 million. That adds cost of close to £40 million a year. From my point of view, it’s promising that the club was ambitious enough to make that kind of offer and wise enough to not spend that money if they think the players were not worth it. Worth adding that club can only have these kinds of losses if they have seasons where they cash in on the young talent.
Depth chart
I have not used duplicates. Just using players in their best position. While Palace has some cover on the left side. I cannot see any player challenging Mitchell and Zaha on that left side. Unless Zaha gets drafted into the striker role. If both get injured. I would be worried and expect a dip in form. That said I could see Ward swapping sides and after a time to get used to the change. Then actually I can see them covering well. I can see Eduoard thriving in left inside forward role. He has issues with some of the responsibilities of a lone striker. Give him an attacking role without having to hold up the ball. After Zaha leaves I could see Eduoard as the first choice on the left.
Agile
Palace might not have two for each position but club has large number of players that can do a job in a variety of positions. This means that we can be agile in a game. If the game plan isn’t working or injuries strike then having players who can cover a multitude of roles are vital. Especially Palace is competing against teams with larger budgets. This has saved us this window as we were hoping for another midfielder and attacker.
Games till the January window
One of the things I saw was before Newcastle game that there were thirteen games till the window opens. But Palace rarely signs players at the start of January. So most likely going to be late in the window. There are three league games in January. By the end of January, the season will be 22 games in. If couldn't get the players at the right price in August then not sure how much changes in January. Other than with Connor Gallagher as Chelsea midfielders return from injury so he might be happier to leave if there is too much competition.
Unfinished Window
This is the issue with this window. That is very close to getting a very good squad that can challenge for the best Palace league position in the Premier League era. It’s going to be hard but I think the results may still come. But injuries are more likely to derail the charge for high league positions. Normally this would be fine as the club hasn’t wasted money and could still invest in January or summer window but I think this is the last year with Zaha. There is a frustration that the squad isn’t as strong as it could have been. But sliding doors moments we never know what could happen if made the big signing they bomb and causes a dip in form that wouldn’t happen if they never signed.
Comments
Post a Comment