Summer Transfer Window Preview

 

Situation,

Textor funded last year's transfer windows with his investment. Now, this summer transfer window; I am not sure about the position of the club. Will it be another window of buying young players but not selling any? In the last two seasons, Palace has signed young players that will have resale value. These players will be sold in the future to fund future transfer sprees. Does the club want to sell before we buy this summer or are they going to continue as last summer? At the moment there aren't many noises that we are going to lose any of the young players but every player has a price.

Wages & Amortisation

Last published accounts the wages were £120 million for 12 months. Since that was reported Palace has released veteran players some of which were signed as free agents or marquee signings which means they would have high wages. They have been replaced with younger players that should have lower wages as they have less experience and are less of a sure thing. (Lower floor but also higher ceiling). A good example is Sakho was replaced by Guéhi. I would assume that Marc is less money than Sakho who was a marquee signing. The current state of play is difficult to guess but should have some room as more veteran players might be leaving like Benteke and Milivojević. 

So I have estimated amortisation of around £20 to £25 million without any new signings. Compared to 20-21 numbers that would put Palace in one of the lowest amortisation charges in the premier league. In 20-21, Burnley had the lowest at 21 million. 

Creating a budget for this season; based on Turnover from pre covid, 10th place finish the same domestic TV games as 18-19, and wage bill from last accounts (that reduced by 5% due to signing younger players that I assume on cheaper wages). Then the club would lose £2.7 million next season pre tax. This doesn’t include any player sales. If the club are looking to break even with a big player sale every other season. So if the club receives £50 million every other season. A very hopefull scenario; that would be very difficult. Then the club could budget to have amortisation and a wage increase by £23 million a season. If you're spending that just on transfer fees then that’s a transfer spend of over £100 million if they are all signing 5-year deals. I don't have any idea if that is the aim. Previously the club has been run at loss for the majority of the time in the Premier League but that was to maintain Premier League status. Currently, the club is more secure. Textor could just be happy to fund losses on his plaything or want Palace to be self-sufficient.

The above is a P&L budget and is not cash. The club will still need cash. Some transfers have a large down payments and then yearly installments. Palace will need the cash in hand to make big moves. Or if they add lots of installments it can increase the overall transfer fee as receiving club would rather have cash in their bank. Palace can raise the cash either through selling players, operations (small amount), loans, or from owners. Last summer was a large spend from ownership and may not want to do that too regularly. 

Needs

Centre Midfield

The number one target is Conor Gallagher's replacement. This will be a difficult job. He has much to his game. High energy goal scorer will be missed. Hopefully, we can get another loan or permanent deal. The first looks more likely. World cup in November and Chelsea being stacked in center of the park might mean he will come back for one more year. If not then the club hopefully has a replacement in mind. 

We need to talk about McArthur. When McArthur got injured in week 11. Palace had only lost to Chelsea and Liverpool. After that Palace drew to Burnley and lost three on the bounce. That was a quarter of premier league losses this season. Also the eye test; Palace look much better with a fit McArthur. He will turn 35 next season. So will need replacing. Might be a project signing like Olise signed to replace Ayew by the end of the season. First half of the season was to develop and second half he took the first-team spot.  

These two center midfielders need to be energizer bunnies. Since Vieira has arrived Palace has played more fun football. But ball retention has only increased from average possession of 40.2% to 51.2%. That is a big increase but a club like Brighton has 55%. They like to keep the ball without attacking to rest players. This means that almost half the time Palace will not have the ball and be pressing the opposition. We need high-energy players to keep up the intensity.

Right Back

Palace has been strongly linked with Aron Wan-Bissaka. I would have loved to see him succeed at Utd and England. That would have made him a great ambassador for the academy. Unfortunately, this may not be the case as he seems one of the scapegoats for utd’s bad season. If the club gets the move to regenerate his career then this could be a great move. He is still a great defender and paired with Olise who is great attacking-wise but might not provide as much coverage as other wingers. 

Or Palace could go in the other direction. Djed Spence is the 21 year old right-back for the football league team of the year and won promotion with Forest even though he was on loan from Middlesborough. AWB and Djed both Junior Elite (football program in Beckenham). He was very good against Arsenal in the FA cup and very attacking right back. He is out of contract at the end of next season. His profile seems very similar to Eze and Olise. They are all London lads that we best in the Championship before Palace signed them with interest from larger teams than Palace. 

3rd Choice Center Back 

Looks like Tompkins will be returning next season. But I am hoping he is the fourth choice. Cheikhou Kouyaté might not be returning. Ward can do a job in a back three but it’s different in a two.  So we need understudy for Anderson and Guehi. Difficult sell as it would be a hard pair to break up to win a starting position. Although if Palace plays three at the back more regularly next season this could be an easier sell to players. Or we could try to bring in a project. Like at Leicester they brought in Çağlar Söyüncü in 2018. Only played in six games in the first season. Then Maguire left the club. Next season he played 34 league games and earned a place in the PFA Team of the year.  As I feel that big teams will be after Guehi. It's only a matter of time before a super club will make an offer that Palace cannot refuse. Look at Ben White and Harry Maguire. Harry made England debut in 2017 and signed by Manchester utd in 2019. Ben made his debut and at the end of that season he went to Arsenal. He only had one season of Premier League experience. We might need to sign two center backs.

2nd Choice Left Back

This position is the most interesting for me. Season just finished it looked like there wasn’t a clear second choice. That there are lots of utility players that could do a shift. Joel Ward, Jaïro Riedewald, Jeffrey Schlupp. None of them I would be comfortable having a long run in the team in that position. Seventeen-year-old Tayo Adaramola has made his debut in the cup. He most likely needs more development time (I have no idea) before he could become the nailed on 2nd choice at the same time wouldn’t like to sign a player to block his progress. The club could sign the left-back equivalent of Nathaniel Clyne. Older player on a one-year deal. This could free up Tayo for a loan to the football league to get experience. It could be Ward that fills that role if the club buys a new right back and also renew Clyne.  

Impact Subs

From the start of next season, each team in the Premier League will be allowed to play five subs like in the FA Cup this season. I thought in the FA Cup Veira used the extra subs well but Palace was the favorite in the majority of the games. So going forwards this summer I want see more impact players added. Olise got two goals and three assists from the bench in 15 games but he should be starting more next season. So need a player to perform that role. While I like Ayew; coming on from the bench wasn't a strength. Got to be careful as a new player could be a blocker for Rak-Sakyi. He was joint top goal scorer for Premier League under 23. He could fill the role of the impact sub but it's a massive jump from under 23 to Premier League football. 

 This will be more important going forward as more subs give more opportunities for players to get 30 minutes to play full throttle. But it could mean fresher defenses. As Palace scored 58% of there goals in second half and are 5th on the second half table. 

Closers subs

This might be the idea spot for McArthur in the squad. There will be games when Palace leading and we will want to hold onto a lead. It's important to have a players on the bench that come on and suck the life out of a game by keeping possession or add some bite by roughing up some players that are causing problems. We need to add these players to make the most out of the extra subs. 

Goalkeepers

Seen the news about an approach to Sam Johnstone. He was WBA player of season for both players and fans last time they were in the Premier League. My guess is with Butland and Guita entering their final year. Palace is looking to sign a cheap second choice but the player, if it bounces correctly, could be a player that could win the number one spot. Johnstone was England’s third choice for the last tournament. If he signed then maybe it’s time for Butland to move elsewhere to get more minutes in a world cup year. 

Open for offers

Christian Benteke - Only got one start in 2022 so far. It’s world cup year and still got something to give. Let him go and enjoy his football. He has been a great servant. 

Luka Milivojević - I like Luka as a player. When he was signed he was filling a hole in the squad that we desperately needed filling. Now there has only been one match Luka has played the full 90 in the Premier League in the season. The lowest amount of minutes in a season since he was 18 playing for Rad Stats. Worth adding if Cheikhou Kouyaté is leaving he might be able to earn more minutes and is earning good wages so that might put off other teams. 

Jaïro Riedewald - Start of the season I thought he was going to have great year this season or at least be playing regularly. Start a couple of losses early on and have not been back since. Needs to leave to reset his career. Sad as seems such a nice guy in interviews. 

Fight to keep

Wilf Zaha 

Zaha might be leaving the summer after another good season. He scored 14 league goals this season with five goals from penalties out of seven. His Xg excluding penalties was only 4.0. Lowest in five seasons yet he outperformed his Xg by five goals. So what does that mean? If he was an average player with the same chances then we expect he would have scored 4 goals without penalties. Wilfs goals they are often at tight angles and so would have a low Xg. 

Personally, I would love to keep Zaha. He’s past the age when a sensible club will pay a massive fee. Remember clubs look at transfer fee + agent fee + wages divide by years of the contract. Right now if I was a big club I wouldn’t be offering loads of money as the number of years at the highest level is questionable. But if a high-end club wants him and he wants to go? It can get difficult as he only has one year left. It’s possible the club let him go. He has been great for the club and it might just be his time. Last summer window if he left it would be a disaster. This summer window if he left it would be a disappointment. 

Guéhi

It’s either this summer or next summer. I cannot see Palace keeping Guéhi long term. As a England international young center back. They don’t play for a team outside the super league teams for very long. One of those teams will just chuck a massive transfer fee. It’s not like Declan Rice. There is a real lack of top-quality center backs available. When you find one it’s like gold dust. That’s why Ben White and Harry Maguire got such massive fees. Palace will have to try to get the biggest number and hopefully have a couple of players in their mind if we have a large sum of money to spend if it does happen.

Eze

There were rumors in the winter window Newcastle tried there luck with a massive £50 million offer. New look Newcastle was just offering money all over the place to stay up last winter. If came back again with a large offer should Palace accept it? As they have time to spend it and fund a couple more Eze’s? On this one, I don’t know. I Love Eze he’s a great player and looks like a great lad from the club videos. But that is a lot of money. If the club develops him to point of being a champions league-level player. He may still not command such a large fee. At the same time, England was considering a call-up recently and he was injured for most of the season and games that he did play. I wouldn’t say he was at his best yet. I don’t honestly know with this one. 

Mitchell

Any Palace player that has earned an England cap makes me nervous that the big club with the silly offers is coming. At this moment I think he needs more games. He reminds me of Nathaniel Clyne when he was at Southampton. You recognize that he is a good player and might take the next step up but needs to carry on learning and working on his game. Worth adding that Clyne got his first cap in November 2014 and left for Liverpool in July 2015. 

Olise

A new contract without a low release clause is rumored. There was talk that he would remove that increase the fee on that clause, add a year and not really change his wages. It could be that he gets a percentage of the transfer fee or something in the new deal. Palace doesn’t really state when a new deal goes through. He has had a great first season in the Premier League with 2 goals and 5 assists. For a young player in the rotation that is a good return. I think he has got the right attitude. There were bigger clubs that were interested in him last summer but he decided to move to Palace. Is he going to be a regular at the Champions League or the France national team he needs to couple of good years at Palace and then make the step up.  

Confidence 

There is a real air of confidence around the club at the moment. People feel like that even if we lose the best players the funds earned from those deals will mean good replacements will come through. Some might see this as arrogance. That we did well when not many clubs were spending. Now if more clubs are spending there will be more competition. Might not be so easy to get some great young players.